1093: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption (VolImpact)

Principal investigator: Christian von Savigny

Universität Greifswald, Institut für Physik (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2019 to 12/2019
Report 1/2020 to 12/2020
Report 1/2021 to 12/2021
Report 1/2022 to 12/2022
Report 1/2023 to 12/2023
Report 1/2024 to 12/2024
Report 1/2025 to 12/2025
Report 1/2026 to 12/2026

Publications

• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0554.1, Fang, S., F. S. R. Pausata, R. D’Agostino, M. Khodri, D. Zanchettin, and C. Timmreck, 2025: Seasonal ITCZ Control on ENSO Responses to Extratropical Volcanic Forcing. J. Climate, 38, 6061–6079, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0554.1.
• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-earth-071025-112048, Roberta D’Agostino, Shih-Wei Fang, Myriam Khodri, Francesco S.R. Pausata, Ernesto Tejedor, et al. 2026. The Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Tropical Hydroclimate. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 54:365-387. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071025-112048
• DOI: doi: 10.1109/TAI.2025.3621121, Meuer, J., M. Witte T. S. Finn, C. Timmreck, T. Ludwig and C. Kadow (2026), "Latent Diffusion and Spatiotemporal Transformers Generate Large Ensemble Climate Simulations," in IEEE Transactions on Artificial Intelligence, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 2625-2637, IEEE Transactions on Artificial Intelligence, doi: 10.1109/TAI.2025.3621121
• DOI: doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, Lange, A., Niemeier, U., Rozanov, A., and von Savigny, C.: Investigating the ability of satellite occultation instruments to monitor possible geoengineering experiments, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 11673–11688, doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-11673-2025, 2025.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-26-9697-2026, Zarei, F., Bruckert, J., Hoshyaripour, G. A., and Hoose, C.: Volcanic aerosol effects on warm and cold cloud microphysics: ICON-ART simulations of Holuhraun and La Soufrière eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 9697–9719, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-9697-2026, 2026.
• DOI: doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1973-2026, Lange, A., Niemeier, U., Rozanov, A., and von Savigny, C.: Investigating the zero transmission problem in satellite solar occultation measurements in the context of possible stratospheric aerosol injections, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1973–1989, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1973-2026, 2026.
• DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s44387-026-00116-z, Meuer, J., Witte, M., Plésiat, É., Ludwig, T., and Kadow, C.: Field-space autoencoder for scalable climate emulators, npj Artif. Intell. ield-space autoencoder for scalable climate emulators, npj Artif. Intell., 2, 50, doi.org/10.1038/s44387-026-00116-z, 2026.
• DOI: doi: 10.1029/2023GL106482, Niemeier, U., Wallis, S., Timmreck, C., van Pham, T. and von Savigny, C.: How the Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha'apai water vapor cloud impacts its transport through the stratosphere: Dynamical and radiative effects, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL106482. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106482, 2023.
• DOI: doi: 10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024., Günther, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C., and Toohey, M.: Why does stratospheric aerosol forcing strongly cool the warm pool?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7203–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024.
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01617-y, Meuer, J., C. Timmreck, S.-W. Fang, and C. Kadow, Fingerprints of past volcanic eruptions can be detected in historical climate records using machine learning. Commun Earth Environ 5, 455, 2024.
• DOI: doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad33d0,, Kroll, C. A, S. Fueglistaler, H. Schmidt, T. Dauhut, and C. Timmreck, The impact of stratospheric aerosol heating on the frozen hydrometeor transport pathways in the tropical tropopause layer, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 044039, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad33d0, 2024.
• DOI: doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad2c0e, Andreasen, L. S., J Corner, P. Abbott, V. Sinclair, F. Riede and C. Timmreck, Changes in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone frequency following volcanic eruptions, Environ. Res.: Climate, in press, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad2c0e, 2024.
• DOI: doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0408.1, Timmreck, C., D. Olonscheck, A. Ballinger, R. d’Agostino, S.-W. Fang, A. P. Schurer and G. C. Hegerl: Linearity of the climate response to increasingly strong tropical volcanic eruptions in a large ensemble framework, J. of Climate, 37, 2455–2470, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0408.1, 2024.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, Wrana, F., Niemeier, U., Thomason, L. W., Wallis, S., and von Savigny, C.: Stratospheric aerosol size reduction after volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9725–9743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, 2023.
• DOI: 10.1029/2022JD037694, Bruckert, J., G. A. Hoshyaripour, L. Hirsch, A. Horvath, R. Kahn, T. Kölling, L. O. Muser, C. Timmreck, H. Vogel, S. Wallis, B. Vogel, Dispersion and Aging of Volcanic Aerosols after the La Soufriere Eruption in April 2021, JGR Atmospheres, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037694, 2023
• DOI: 10.1029/2022GL, Kroll, C. A., S. Fueglistaler, S., Schmidt, H., Kornblueh, L., and Timmreck, C.: The sensitivity of moisture flux partitioning in the cold-point tropopause to external forcing, published Geophys. Res. Lett, Vol. 50, Issue 12, 12 June 2023. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102262.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-7001-2023, Wallis, S., Schmidt, H., and von Savigny, C.: Impact of a strong volcanic eruption on the summer middle atmosphere in UA-ICON simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 7001–7014, Research Highlight, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7001-2023, 2023
• DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acee9fa, Freychet, N., A. Schurer, A. Ballinger, L. Suarez-Gutierrez and C. Timmreck., Assessing the impact of very large volcanic eruptions on the risk of extreme climate events, Environ. Res.: Climate 2 035015 DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/acee9fa, 2023.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, Bruckert, J., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Horváth, Á., Muser, L. O., Prata, F. J., Hoose, C., and Vogel, B.: Online treatment of eruption dynamics improves the volcanic ash and SO2 dispersion forecast: case of the 2019 Raikoke eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3535–3552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3535-2022, 2022.
• DOI: doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac62af, D'Agostino, R. & Timmreck, C. (2022). Sensitivity of regional monsoons to idealised equatorial volcanic eruption of different sulfur emission strengths. Environmental Research Letters, 17: 054001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac62af
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022, Haghighatnasab, M., Kretzschmar, J., Block, K., and Quaas, J.: Impact of Holuhraun volcano aerosols on clouds in cloud-system-resolving simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8457–8472, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8457-2022
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0306.1, Günther, M., H. Schmidt, C. Timmreck and M. Toohey, Climate feedback to stratospheric aerosol forcing explained by pattern effect, Journal of Climate,https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0306.1
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2020-749, Malinina, E., Rozanov, A., Niemeier, U., Peglow, S., Arosio, C., Wrana, F., Timmreck, C., von Savigny, C., and Burrows, J. P.: Changes in stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient after the 2018 Ambae eruption as seen by OMPS-LP and ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-749, in review, 2020.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, Kroll, C. A., Dacie, S., Azoulay, A., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6565–6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021, 2021.
• DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-633-2021,, Niemeier, U., Riede, F., and Timmreck, C.: Simulation of ash clouds after a Laacher See-type eruption, Clim. Past, 17, 633–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021, 2021.
• DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034450, Azoulay, A., Schmidt, H., and Timmreck, C.: The Arctic polar vortex response to volcanic forcing of different strengths, J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2020JD034450. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034450, 2021.
• DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, Timmreck, C., Toohey, M., Zanchettin, D., Brönnimann, S., Lundstad, E., and Wilson, R.: The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case, Clim. Past, 17, 1455–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021, 2021.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, Muser, L. O., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Bruckert, J., Horváth, Á., Malinina, E., Wallis, S., Prata, F. J., Rozanov, A., von Savigny, C., Vogel, H., and Vogel, B.: Particle aging and aerosol–radiation interaction affect volcanic plume dispersion: evidence from the Raikoke 2019 eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15015–15036, doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15015-2020, 2020.
• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-45, Bruckert, J., Hoshyaripour, G. A., Horvath, A., Muser, L., Prata, F. J., Hoose, C., and Vogel, B.: Online treatment of eruption dynamics improves the volcanic ash and SO2 dispersion forecast: case of the Raikoke 2019 eruption, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2021-459, in review, 2021.
• DOI: doi:10.1127/metz/2019/0999, von Savigny, C., Timmreck, C., Buehler, S., Burrows, J., Giorgetta, M., Hegerl, G., Horvath, A., Hoshyaripour, G., Hoose, C., Quaas, J., Malinina, E., Rozanov, A., Schmidt, H., Thomason, L., Toohey, M. & Vogel, B. (2020). The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 3-18.