1264: Storyline simulations of extreme events with spectral nudging

Principal investigator: Helge Gößling

AWI-Bremerhaven (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2022 to 12/2022
Report 1/2023 to 12/2023
Report 1/2024 to 12/2024
Report 1/2025 to 12/2025
Report 1/2026 to 12/2026

Publications

• DOI: doi:10.1088/2976-601X/adb03d, Martin, L. L., et al.: The vulnerability of European agricultural areas to anthesis heat stress increases with climate change, Environ. Res.: Food Syst., 2, 025002, doi:10.1088/2976-601X/adb03d, 2025
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x, Zhuo, W., et al.: Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 8, 169, doi:10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x, 2025.
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3, Schachtschneider, R., et al.: Neural network based estimates of the climate impact on mortality in Germany: application to storyline climate simulations, Sci. Rep., 14, 26074, doi:10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3, 2024.
• DOI: doi:10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0, Klimiuk, T., et al.: Regional nudged storylines for the European hot and dry summers 2018–2022: response of evapotranspiration regimes to climate change, Clim. Dyn., 64, 315, doi:10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0, 2026
• DOI: doi:10.22541/essoar.15009285/v1, Sánchez-Benítez, A., et al.: Flow-Dependent Pathways to European Drought: A Storyline Assessment in Wind-Constrained Simulations of the Last Decade, ESS Open Archive [preprint], doi:10.22541/essoar.15009285/v1, submitted to J. Climate, 2026.
• DOI: doi:10.1126/sciadv.aef7703, Miersch, P., et al.: Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation, Sci. Adv., 12, eaef7703, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aef7703, 2026.
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, Athanase, M., et al.: Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 53, doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, 2024a.
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0, Athanase, M., et al.: How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 676, doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0, 2024b.
• DOI: doi:10.1029/2025EF007547, Kettaren, R., et al.: Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018–2022 multi-year droughts in Europe, Earth’s Future, 14, e2025EF007547, doi:10.1029/2025EF007547, 2026a.
• DOI: doi:10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1, Kettaren, R., et al.: A forensic investigation reveals a widespread anthropogenic warming fingerprint on Europe’s July 2026 low flows, ESS Open Archive [preprint], doi:10.22541/essoar.15009992/v1, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett., 2026b.
• DOI: doi:10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, Klimiuk, T., et al.: The European summer heatwave 2019 – a regional storyline perspective, Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, doi:10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025.
• Merz, N., et al.: Disentangling the anthropogenic climate change influence on recent hydroclimate whiplash events via multiple nudged model simulations, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., accepted, 2026.
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-2515-2015, Maronga B, Gryschka M, Heinze R, Hoffmann F, Kanani-Sühring F, Keck M, Ketelsen K, Letzel MO, Sühring M, Raasch S: The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) version 4.0 for atmospheric and oceanic flows: model formulation, recent developments, and future perspectives, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2515–2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2515-2015, 2015
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0, Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Monfort, E., Jung, T., Goessling, H.: How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines. Commun. Earth Environ, 5, 676, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0, 2024.
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1, Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., Semmler, T., & Jung, T. (2022). The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging. Journal of Climate, 35(8), 2373-2390.
• DOI: 10.1088/2976-601X/adb03d, Martin, L., Smerald, A., Hass, E., Kiese, R., Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H. and Scheer C.: The vulnerability of agricultural areas during heatwaves increases with climate change. Environmental Research - Food Systems, https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/adb03d, 2025
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-2024-16, Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Braesicke, P., Pinto, J.G.: The European summer heatwave 2019 – a regional storyline perspective, Earth Syst. Dyn, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, 2025
• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, Trivedi, S., Sievers, I., Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., and Semmler, T.: Evaluating Arctic Sea-Ice and Snow Thickness: A Proxy-Based Comparison of MOSAiC Data with CMIP6 Simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, 2024
• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x, Zhuo, W., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Athanase, M. et al. Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 169, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01031-x, 2024
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., Jung, T.: Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean, Commun. Earth Environ, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, 2024.
• Klimiuk, T., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Ludwig, P., Pinto, J.G.: Regional Nudged Storylines for the European Hot and Dry Summers 2018-2022: Response of Evapotranspiration Regimes to Climate Change, submitted
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, Pithan, F., Athanase, M., Dahlke, S., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Shupe, M. D., Sledd, A., Streffing, J., Svensson, G., and Jung, T.: Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1857–1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1857-2023, 2023.
• Kettaren, R., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Athanase, M., Kumar, R., Samaniego, L. and Rakovec, O.,: Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018-2022 multi-year drought in Europe, submitted to Earth's Future
• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, Trivedi, S., Sievers, I., Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., and Semmler, T.: Evaluating Arctic Sea-Ice and Snow Thickness: A Proxy-Based Comparison of MOSAiC Data with CMIP6 Simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2214, 2024
• Zhuo, W., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Athanase, M., Jung, T. Yao, Y., Goessling, H.: Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes. Earth's future, 2024.
• Martin, L., Smerald, A., Hass, E., Kiese, R., Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H. and Scheer C.: The vulnerability of agricultural areas during heatwaves increases with climate change. Environmental Research - Food Systems. 2024.
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3, Klimiuk, T., Ludwig, P., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Braesicke, P., Pinto, J.G.: The European summer heatwave 2019 – a regional storyline perspective, Earth Syst. Dyn, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, 2024 Schachtschneider, R., Saynisch-Wagner, J., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Thomas, M.: Neural network based estimates of the climate impact on mortality in Germany-application to storyline climate simulations, Sci. Rep., https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77398-3, 2024.
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, Athanase, M., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., Jung, T.: Projected amplification of summer marine heatwaves in a warming Northeast Pacific Ocean, Commun. Earth Environ, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01212-1, 2024.
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1, Sánchez-Benítez, A., Goessling, H., Pithan, F., Semmler, T., & Jung, T. (2022). The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging. Journal of Climate, 35(8), 2373-2390.
• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-706, Pithan, F., Athanase, M., Dahlke, S., Sánchez-Benítez, A., Shupe, M. D., Sledd, A., Streffing, J., Svensson, G., and Jung, T.: Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in-situ observations: A case study from the MOSAiC expedition, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-706, 2022