1418: Coming Decade - Decadal climate predictions for Europe

Principal investigator: Christopher Kadow

Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 7/2024 to 6/2025
Report 7/2025 to 6/2026

Publications

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.4922, Brune, S. and Koul, V. (2025): Impact of ocean data assimilation on the sub-polar North Atlantic in MPI-ESM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 151(767), e4922, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4922.
• DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111558, Krieger, D., Weisse, R., Baehr, J., Borchert, L. F. (2025). Machine learning-driven skillful decadal predictions of German Bight storm surges. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL111558. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111558.
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-86374-4, Lentz, S., Brune, S., Kadow, C., Baehr, J. (2025): Improving ocean reanalyses of observationally sparse regions with transfer learning. Sci Rep 15, 2640 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-86374-4.
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025, Müller, W. A. et .al. (2025): The ICON-based Earth System Model for climate predictions and projections (ICON XPP v1.0), Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-9385-2025.
• Kim, W.M., Feldmann, H., Ludwig, P., Pinto, J.G.: Decadal Prediction Skill of CMIP6 Multi- Model Ensembles for Sector-Oriented Climate Indices in Europe, submitted to Geophysical Research Letters.
• Rüsenberg, F. and Fleischhut, N.: A behavioral change approach to understanding true demand for future climate information, submitted to Climatic Change, https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/fynq6_v4.
• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-5736, Yu, D., Dommenget, D., Pohlmann, H., and Müller, W. A.: A Systematic Atmospheric Parameter Optimization method to Improve ENSO Simulation in the ICON XPP Earth System Model, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-5736.
• DOI: 10.22541/essoar.177292714.47615481/v1, Yu, D., Dommenget, D., and Müller, W. A.: Eastern Pacific coastal warm bias as a key control on ENSO nonlinearity in climate models, submitted to Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.177292714.47615481/v1.