769: Alert for LARge volcanic eruptions in Medium term climate prediction (ALARM)

Principal investigator: Claudia Timmreck

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2012 to 12/2012
Report 1/2013 to 12/2013
Report 1/2015 to 12/2015
Report 1/2016 to 12/2016

Publications

• Timmreck C., H. Pohlmann, S. Illing and C. Kadow (2016) The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal scale predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett, 43, doi: 10.1002/2015GL067431
• Kremser, S. L. W. Thomason, M. von Hobe, M. Hermann, C. Timmreck, T. Deshler, M. Toohey, A. Stenke, Fred Prata, J. Schwarz, R. Weigel, S. Fueglistaler, J.-P. Vernier, B. Luo, H. Schlager, J. Barnes, J.-C. Antuna-Marrero, D. Fairlie, M. Palm, E. Mahieu, J. Notholt, M. Rex, R. Neely, C. Bingen, A. Bourassa, J. Plane, D. Klocke, S. Carn, C. Lieven, A. James, S. Borrmann, L. Rieger, T. Trickl, C. Wilson, and B. Meland (2016) Stratospheric aerosol - Observations, processes, and impact on climate Rev. Geophys., 54, doi:10.1002/2015RG000511.
• Bittner, M., C. Timmreck, H.Schmidt, M. Toohey M, K, Krüger The impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions. (2016) J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, doi:10.1002/2015JD024603
• Bittner, M., H. Schmidt, C. Timmreck, and F. Sienz (2016), Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL070587.
• Zanchettin, D., M. Khodri, C. Timmreck M. Toohey, A. Schmidt, E. P. Gerber, G. Hegerl, A. Robock, F. S. Pausata, W. T. Ball, S. E. Bauer S. Bekki, S. S. Dhomse, A. N. LeGrande, G. W. Mann, L. Marshall, M. Mills, M. Marchand, U. Niemeier, V. Poulain, A. Rubino, A. Stenke, K. Tsigaridis and F. Tummon (2016), The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016.
• Marotzke, J., W: A. Müller, F. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M. Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck and M. Ziese (2016), MiKlip – a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction, BAMS http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00
• Zanchettin, D., M. Khodri, C. Timmreck M. Toohey, A. Schmidt, E. P. Gerber, G. Hegerl, A. Robock, F. S. Pausata, W. T. Ball, S. E. Bauer S. Bekki, S. S. Dhomse, A. N. LeGrande, G. W. Mann, L. Marshall, M. Mills, M. Marchand, U. Niemeier, V. Poulain, A. Rubino, A. Stenke, K. Tsigaridis and F. Tummon (2016), The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): experimental design and forcing input data for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701-2719, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016.
• Hommel, R, C Timmreck, M Giorgetta and HF Graf (2015) Quasi-biennial oscillation of the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer layer Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5557-5584, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5557-2015.
• Niemeier, U. and C. Timmreck (2015) What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO2?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129-9141, doi:10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015,
• Domeisen, D., A. Butler, K. Fröhlich, M. Bittner, W. Müller, and J. Baehr, 2014: Seasonal Predictability over Europe arising from El Nino and Stratospheric Variability in the MPI-ESM Seasonal Prediction System., J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1
• Graf, H-F, D. Zanchettin, C Timmreck, M. Bittner, 2014: Observational constraints on the tropospheric and near-surface winter signature of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, Climate Dynamics DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2101-0.
• Pascolini-Campbell, M, D Zanchettin, O Bothe, C Timmreck, D Matei, JH Jungclaus, HF Graf, 2014: Toward a record of Central Pacific El Niño events since 1880., Theor. Appl. Climatol. DOI:10.1007/s00704-014-1114-2
• Toohey, M., K. Krüger, M. Bittner, C. Timmreck, and H. Schmidt, 2014: The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1–16, doi:10.5194/acp-14-1-2014
• Zanchettin D, O Bothe, C Timmreck, J Bader, A Beitsch, HF Graf, D Notz, JH Jungclaus, 2014: Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)., Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 223-242.
• Sigl, M., McConnell, J. R., Toohey, M., Curran, M., Das, S. B., Edwards, R., Isaksson, E., Kawamura, K., Kipfstuhl, S., Krüger, K., Layman, L., Maselli, O. J., Motizuki, Y., Motoyama, H., Pasteris, D. R. and Severi, M.: Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2293, 2014.
• Schmidt, H., Rast, S., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M. A., Kinne, S., Krismer, T., Stenchikov, G., Timmreck, C., Tomassini, L.,and Walz, M. The response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic and natural forcing in the CMIP5 simulations with the MPI-ESM. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), 98-116, DOI: 10.1002/jame.20014, 2013
• Zanchettin D., C. Timmreck, O. Bothe , S. Lorenz, G. Hegerl, H.-F Graf, J. Luterbacher and J. Jungclaus, Delayed winter warming: a decadal dynamical response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res. Lett. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054403 2013
• Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, H.-F Graf, S. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, C. Timmreck and J. Jungclaus, Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions. . J. Geophys. Res .DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013.
• Charlton-Perez, A. J., M. P. Baldwin, T. Birner, R. X. Black, A. H. Butler, N. Calvo, N. A. Davis, E. P. Gerber, N. Gillett, S. Hardiman, J. Kim, K. Krüger, Y.-Y. Lee, E. Manzini, B. A. McDaniel, L. Polvani, T. Reichler, T. A. Shaw, M. Sigmond, S.-W. Son, M. Toohey, L. Wilcox, S. Yoden, B. Christiansen, F. Lott, D. Shindell, S. Yukimoto, and S. Watanabe (2013), On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(6), 2494–2505, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50125.
• Bancalá, S.; Krüger, K.; Giorgetta, M. The preconditioning of major sudden stratospheric warmings. J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 117, No. D4, D04101 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016769
• Timmreck C. Modeling the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change doi: 10.1002/wcc.192.e, 2012.