820: ISI-MIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

Principal investigator: Matthias Buechner

Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2012 to 12/2012
Report 1/2015 to 12/2015
Report 1/2016 to 12/2016
Report 1/2017 to 12/2017
Report 1/2018 to 12/2018
Report 1/2019 to 12/2019
Report 1/2020 to 12/2020
Report 1/2021 to 12/2021
Report 1/2022 to 12/2022
Report 1/2023 to 12/2023
Report 1/2024 to 12/2024

Publications

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102667, Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Fang Li, Junya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Akihiko Ito, Dong Kun Lee, Wim Thiery Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions Global Environmental Change (2023)
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adf5848, Carlino, A., Wildemeersch, M., Chawanda, C.J., Giuliani, M., Sterl, S., Thiery, W., van Griensven, A., Castelletti, A. Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion Science, 381 (6658), 645 (eadf5848) (2023)
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164274, Jun Zhou, Chuanhao Wu, Pat J.-F. Yeh, Jiali Ju, Lulu Zhong, Saisai Wang, Junlong Zhang Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Science of The Total Environment (2023)
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, Cuesta-Valero, F.J., Beltrami, H., García-García, A., Krinner, G., Langer, M., MacDougall, A.H., Nitzbon, J., Peng, J., von Schuckmann, K., Seneviratne, S.I., Thiery, W., Vanderkelen, I., Wu, T. Continental heat storage: Contributions from ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing Earth system dynamics, 14, 609-627 (2023)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83, Bauer, N., Keller, D.P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., Winkelmann, R. Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time Environmental Research Letters, 18(5), 054015 (2023)
• DOI: 10.1111/geb.13646, Matthias F. Biber, Alke Voskamp, Christian Hof Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity Global Ecology and Biogeography (2023)
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, von Schuckmann, K., Minère, A., Gues, F., Cuesta-Valero, F.J., Kirchengast, G., Adusumilli, S., Straneo, F., Allan, R., Barker, P.M., Beltrami, H., Boyer, T., Cheng, L., Church, J., Desbruyeres, D., Dolman, H., Domingues, C.M., García-García, A., Giglio, D., Gilson, J.E., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Hendricks, S., Hosoda, S., Johnson, G.C., Killick, R., King, B., Kolodziejczyk, N., Korosov, A., Krinner, G., Kuusela, M., Langer, M., Lavergne, T., Lawrence, I., Li, Y., Lyman, J., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., MacDougall, A., McDougall, T., Monselesan, D.P., Nitzbon, J., Otosaka, I., Peng, J., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Sato, K., Sato, K., Savita, A., Schweiger, A., Shepherd, A., Seneviratne, S.I., Simons, L., Slater, D.A., Slater, T., Smith, N., Steiner, A., Suga, T., Szekely, T., Thiery, W., Timmermans, M.-L., Vanderkelen, I., Wjiffels, S.E., Wu, T., Zemp, M. Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: Where does the energy go? Earth System Sciences Data, 15, 1675–1709 (2023)
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16384, M. Mahnken, M. Cailleret, A. Collalti, C. Trotta, C. Biondo, E. D’Andrea, D. Dalmonech, G. Marano, A. Mäkelä, F. Minunno, M. Peltoniemi, V. Trotsiuk, D. Nadal-Sala, S. Sabaté, P. Vallet, R. Aussenac, D. R. Cameron, F. J. Bohn, R. Grote, A. L. D. Augustynczik, R. Yousefpour, N. Huber, H. Bugmann, K. Merganicova, J. Merganic, P. Valent, P. Lasch-Born, F. Hartig, I. D. Vega del Valle, J. Volkholz, M. Gutsch, G. Matteucci, J. Krejza, A. Ibrom, H. Meesenburg, T. Rötzer, M. van der Maaten-Theunissen, E. van der Maaten, C. P. O. Reyer Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models Global Change Biology (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee, Veronika Huber, Cristina Peña Ortiz, David Gallego Puyol, Stefan Lange and Francesco Sera Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality Environmental Research Letters, Volume 17, Number 4 (2022)
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado-Bettin, D., Woolway, R.I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Kraemer, B.M., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Bogomolov, V.Y., Bouffard, D., Côté, M., Couture, R.-M., Debolskiy, A.V., Droppers, B., Gal, G., Guo, M., Janssen, A.B.G., Kirillin, G., Ladwig, R., Magee, M., Moore, T., Perroud, M., Piccolroaz, S., Raaman Vinnaa, L., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Stepanenko, V.M., Tan, Z., Woodward, B., Yao, H., Adrian, R., Allan, M., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Atkins, K., Boegman, L., Carey, C., Christianson, K., de Eyto, E., DeGasperi, C., Grechushnikova, M., Hejzlar, J., Joehnk, K., Jones, I.D., Laas, A., Mackay, E.B., Mammarella, I., Markensten, H., McBride, C., Özkundakci, D., Potes, M., Rinke, K., Robertson, D., Rusak, J.A., Salgado, R., van der Linden, L., Verburg, P., Wain, D., Ward, N.K., Wollrab, S., Zdorovennova, G. A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 4597–4623 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16298, ansen, J., Woolway, R.I., Kraemer, B.M., Albergel, C., Bastviken, D., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Marcé, R., Sharma, S., Sobek, S., Tranvik, L., Perroud, M., Golub, M. Moore, T.N., Vinna, L.R., La Fuente, S., Grant, L., Pierson, D.C., Thiery, W., Jennings, E. Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16298 (2022)
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, Busschaert, L., de Roos, S., Thiery, W., Raes, D., De Lannoy, G.J.M. Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26, 3731-3752 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1, Anne Gädeke, Michel Wortmann, Christoph Menz, AKM Saiful Islam, Muhammad Masood, Valentina Krysanova, Stefan Lange and Fred Fokko Hattermann Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 094036 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002138, Yin LC, Tao FL, Zhai R, Chen Y, Hu J, Wang ZH, Fu BJ Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service Earth's Future, 10 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3, Klitting, R., Kafetzopoulou, L.E., Thiery, W., Dudas, G., Gryseels, S., Kotamarthi, A., Vrancken, B., Gangavarapu, K., Momoh, M., Sandi, J.D., Goba, A., Alhasan, F., Grant, D.S., Okogbenin, S., Ogbaini-Emovo, E., Garry, R.F., Smither, A.R., Zeller, M., Pauthner, M.G., McGraw, M., Hughes, L.D., Duraffour, S., Günther, S., Suchard, M.A., Lemey, P., Andersen, K.G., Dellicour, S. Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades Nature Communications, 13, 5596 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e, Stefanie Heinicke , Katja Frieler, Jonas Jägermeyr and Matthias Mengel Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves Environ. Res. Lett. 17 044026 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109203, Dalmonech D., Marano G., Amthor J., Cescatti A., Lindner M, Trotta C., Collalti A. Feasibility of enhancing carbon sequestration and stock capacity in temperate and boreal European forests via changes to management regimes Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 327 (2022) 109203 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14512, Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6, State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2616, Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long‐term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
• DOI: 10.1111/jbi.13696, A comparison of macroecological and stacked species distribution models to predict future global terrestrial vertebrate richness
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116, Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)
• The reference for the currently running simulation phase, ISIMIP2b, is Frieler et al. (2016, GMDD, 10.5194/gmd-2016-229). An overview of recent publications based on ISIMIP, including many published this year, is available at https://www.isimip.org/outcomes/.
• Frieler, K., et al.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-229, in review, 2016. http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2016-229/
• The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework