820: ISI-MIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

Principal investigator: Matthias Buechner

Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2012 to 12/2012
Report 1/2015 to 12/2015
Report 1/2016 to 12/2016
Report 1/2017 to 12/2017
Report 1/2018 to 12/2018
Report 1/2019 to 12/2019
Report 1/2020 to 12/2020
Report 1/2021 to 12/2021
Report 1/2022 to 12/2022
Report 1/2023 to 12/2023
Report 1/2024 to 12/2024
Report 1/2025 to 12/2025
Report 1/2026 to 12/2026

Publications

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7, Karim Zantout, Juraj Balkovic, Maik Billing, Christian Folberth, Simon N. Gosling, Tobias Hank, Stijn Hantson, Toshichika Iizumi, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jägermeyr, Atul K. Jain, Nikolay Khabarov, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Fang Li, Mengxue Li, Tzu-Shun Lin, Wenfeng Liu, Christoph Müller, Masashi Okada, Sebastian Ostberg, Kedar Otta, Sam Rabin, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Clemens Scheer, Julia M. Schneider, Florian Zabel, Katja Frieler & Jacob Schewe (2025): Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming. Nature Communications 16(1), 9746. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7
• DOI: 10.1038/s44264-026-00173-6, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Masato Shinoda, Jinfeng Chang, Shunji Oniki, Bakyei Agipar, Christopher P. O. Reyer & Jamts Davaadalai (2026): Future climate change risks and sustainable pathways for pastoralism in the eastern Eurasian drylands. npj Sustainable Agriculture 4(1), 78. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44264-026-00173-6
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111716, Elisa Bruni, Aleksi Lehtonen, Shoji Hashimoto, Boris Ťupek, Nasser Bacha, Daniel Bunker, Illian Brasselet-Darracq, Dalia Fages-Gouyou, Yanis Hemeray, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Carlos A. Sierra, Bertrand Guenet (2026): me4soc: a multi-model ensemble interface for soil organic carbon predictions. Ecological Modelling 521, 111716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111716
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Jacob Schewe, Matthias Mengel, Simon Treu, Christian Otto, Jan Volkholz, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke, Colin Jones, Julia L. Blanchard, Cheryl S. Harrison, Colleen M. Petrik, Tyler D. Eddy, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Camilla Novaglio, Ryan Heneghan, Derek P. Tittensor, Olivier Maury, Matthias Büchner, Thomas Vogt, Dánnell Quesada-Chacón, Kerry Emanuel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Linn Hamester, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sam Rabin, Jochen Klar, Iliusi D. Vega del Valle, Lisa Novak, Inga J. Sauer, Gitta Lasslop, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala, Noah Smith, Jinfeng Chang, Stijn Hantson, Chantelle Burton, Anne Gädeke, Fang Li, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Fred Hattermann, Thomas Hickler, Rafael Marcé, Don Pierson, Wim Thiery, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Robert Ladwig, Ana Isabel Ayala, Matthew Forrest, Michel Bechtold, Robert Reinecke, Inge de Graaf, Jed O. Kaplan, Alexander Koch, Matthieu Lengaigne, Rohini Kumar, Maryna Strokal (2026): Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II). Geoscientific Model Development 19(10), 4095-4135. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-73051-x, Virkki V., Andersen L.S., te Wierik S, Gerten D, Porkka M (2026): Regionally divergent drivers behind transgressions of the freshwater change planetary boundary. Nature Communications 17(1), 5132. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73051-x
• DOI: 10.1038/s41559-026-03050-0, Stefanie Heinicke, Karim Zantout, Hjalmar S. Kühl, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Sandra Zimmermann, Maik Billing, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Stijn Hantson, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Benedikt Mester, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Kedar Otta, Yadu Pokhrel & Katja Frieler (2026): Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085. Nature Ecology & Evolution 10(5), 854-863. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03050-0
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae51a7, Erazo, D., Pietroiusti, R., Ghisbain,G., Colon Gonzalez, F., Pironon, S., Van Bortel, W., Mengel, M., Frieler, K., Thiery, W., Dellicour, S. (2026): Limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa. Environmental Research Letters 21(6), 064028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51a7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eja.2025.127920, Busschaert, L., Deketelaere, V., Thiery, W., Raes, D., De Lannoy, G. J. M. (2026): Future projections of European maize yields using AquaCrop with an adaptive growing season. European Journal of Agronomy 173, 127920. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2025.127920
• DOI: 10.1029/2025WR040877, Van Tricht, L., Zekollari, H., Huss, M., Van Tiel, M., Vanderkelen, I., Compagno, L., Thiery, L., Huybrechts, P., Farinotti, D. (2026): Reduced future summer water availability in the Tien Shan due to glacier wastage. Water Resources Research 62(2), e2025WR040877. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040877
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-19-955-2026, Lampe, S., Gudmundsson, L., Kraft, B., Hantson, S., Kelley, D., Humphrey, V., Le Saux, B., Chuvieco., E., Thiery, W. (2026): BuRNN (v1.0): A Data-Driven Fire Model. Geoscientific Model Development 19(2), 955-988. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-955-2026
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026, Reineke, R., Akhter, T., Bäthge, A., Dietrich, R., Gnann, S., Gosling, S.N., Grogan, D., Hartmann, A., Kollet, S., Kumar, R., Lammers, R., Liu, S., Liu, Y., Moosdorf, N., Naz, B., Nazari, S., Orazulike, C., Pokhrel, Y., Schewe, J., Smilovic, M., Strokal, M., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Zuidema, S., de Graaf, I. (2026): The ISIMIP groundwater sector: a framework for ensemble modeling of global change impacts on groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 19(1), 523-542. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-523-2026
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-66868-5, Yiling Chen, Zhiying Su, R. Iestyn Woolway, Niko Wanders, Sijia Wu, Ziwei Huang & Ming Luo (2026): Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change. Nature Communications 17(1), 94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66868-5
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-19-41-2026, Ayala A. I., Hinostroza J. L., Mercado-Bettín D., Marcé R., Gosling S. N., Pierson D. C. and Sobek S. (2026): Integration of the GlobalWater and Lake Sectors within the ISIMIP framework through scaling of streamflow inputs to lakes. Geoscientific Model Development 19(1), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-41-2026
• DOI: 10.1111/geb.70161, Chantal Hari, Thomas Hickler, Christian Hof, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Inne Vanderkelen, Alke Voskamp, Matthias F. Biber, Markus Fischer, Édouard L. Davin (2026): Future Climate and Land Use Change Will Equally Impact Global Terrestrial Vertebrate Diversity. Global Ecology and Biogeography 35(1), e70161. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70161
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wroa.2025.100457, D. Atton Beckmann, M. Werther, T. Shatwell, E. Spyrakos, P. Hunter, I.D. Jones (2026): How climate change erodes short-term lake-temperature predictability: Informing climate resilient lake forecasting. Water Research X 30, 100457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2025.100457
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ada459, Lennart Jansen*, Sabine Undorf and Christoph Gornott: Current and future adaptation potential of heat-tolerant maize in Cameroon: a combined attribution and adaptation study Environ. Res. Lett. 20 024027 (2025)
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2507311122, W.S. Hart, J.W. Hurrell, A.R. Kaye, M. Chand, M.J. Keeling, & R.N. Thompson, Climate variability amplifies the need for vector-borne disease outbreak preparedness, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (34) e2507311122, 2025.
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59291-3, Qiu, Y., Chen, J., Chen, D. et al. Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming. Nat Commun 16, 3954 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59291-3
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adu8032, Kaiwen Wang et al. ,China’s nationwide streamflow decline driven by landscape changes and human interventions.Sci. Adv.11, eadu8032(2025).
• DOI: 10.1088/3033-4942/addffa, Jones, E.R., van Beek, R., Cárdenas Belleza, G., Burek, P., Dugdale, S.J., Flörke, M., Fridman, D., Gosling, S.N., Kumar, R., Mercado-Bettin, D., Müller Schmied, H., Tan, Z., Thiery, W., Tilahun, A.B., Wanders, N., van Vliet, M.T.H.: A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change Environmental Research: Water, 1, 025002 (2025)
• DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006325, Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., & Thiery, W. (2025). Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325.
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56022-6, Deng, Q., Sharretts, T., Ali, T. et al. Deepening water scarcity in breadbasket nations. Nat Commun 16, 1110 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56022-6
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02318-w, Sheng, D., Zhao, X., Edmonds, J.A. et al. Omitting labor responses underestimates the effects of future heat stress on agriculture. Commun Earth Environ 6, 400 (2025).
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08907-1, Grant, L., Vanderkelen, I., Gudmundsson, L. et al. Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes. Nature 641, 374–379 (2025).
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-29-1183-2025, Feldbauer, J., Mesman, J. P., Andersen, T. K., and Ladwig, R.: Learning from a large-scale calibration effort of multiple lake temperature models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1183–1199, 2025.
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179486, Kumar A, Gosling SN, Johnson MF, Jones MD, Nkwasa A, Koutroulis A, Schmied HM, Li H-Y, Kim H, Hanasaki N, Kumar R, Thiery W, Pokhrel Y: Exploring global propagation of meteorological to hydrological droughts (1971–2001) Science of The Total Environment, 979: 179486 (2025)
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02314-0, Woolway, R.I., Kayastha, M.B., Tong, Y. et al. Subsurface heatwaves in lakes. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 554–559 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02314-0
• DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004851, Maury, O., Tittensor, D. P., Eddy, T. D., Allison, E. H., Bahri, T., Barrier, N., et al. (2025). The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs): A new scenario and simulation framework to investigate the future of the world fisheries. Earth's Future, 13, e2024EF004851. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, Müller Schmied, H., Gosling, S. N., Garnsworthy, M., Müller, L., Telteu, C.-E., Ahmed, A. K., Andersen, L. S., Boulange, J., Burek, P., Chang, J., Chen, H., Gudmundsson, L., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Kumar, R., Leng, G., Liu, J., Liu, X., Menke, I., Mishra, V., Pokhrel, Y., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Satoh, Y., Shah, H. L., Smilovic, M., Stacke, T., Sutanudjaja, E., Thiery, W., Tsilimigkras, A., Wada, Y., Wanders, N., and Yokohata, T.: Graphical representation of global water models, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025.
• DOI: 10.1029/2024WR037153, Zhao, F., Nie, N., Liu, Y., Yi, C., Guillaumot, L., Wada, Y., et al. (2025). Benefits of calibrating a global hydrological model for regional analyses of flood and drought projections: A case study of the Yangtze River Basin. Water Resources Research, 61, e2024WR037153. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR037153
• DOI: 10.1088/3033-4942/adc47b, Otta K, Müller Schmied H, Gosling SN, Hanasaki N: Towards the use of satellite remote sensing to validate reservoir storage in global hydrological models: methodology and pilot study in the CONUS Environmental Research: Water 1: 015002 (2025)
• DOI: 10.1002/sd.3272, Boyd, D. S., Jackson, B., Sparks, J. D., Foody, G. M., Girindran, R., Gosling, S., Trodd, Z., Ni Bhriain, L., & Rodriguez-Huerta, E. (2025). The future of decent work: Forecasting heat stress and the intersection of sustainable development challenges in India's brick kilns. Sustainable Development, 33(2), 3099–3117. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3272
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.240931612, S. Pelz, G. Ganti, R. Lamboll, L. Grant, C. Smith, S. Pachauri, J. Rogelj, K. Riahi, W. Thiery, & M.J. Gidden, Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 122 (13) e2409316122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2409316122 (2025).
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02244-x, Mandel, A., Battiston, S. & Monasterolo, I. Mapping global financial risks under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 329–334 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02244-x
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178275, Konstantina Vasilakou, Philippe Nimmegeers, Yuan Yao, Pieter Billen, Steven Van Passel: Global spatiotemporal characterization factors for freshwater eutrophication under climate change scenarios Science of The Total Environment Volume 959, 10 January 2025, 178275 (2025)
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adf5848, Carlino, A., Wildemeersch, M., Chawanda, C.J., Giuliani, M., Sterl, S., Thiery, W., van Griensven, A., Castelletti, A. Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion Science, 381 (6658), 645 (eadf5848) (2023)
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164274, Jun Zhou, Chuanhao Wu, Pat J.-F. Yeh, Jiali Ju, Lulu Zhong, Saisai Wang, Junlong Zhang Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Science of The Total Environment (2023)
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, Cuesta-Valero, F.J., Beltrami, H., García-García, A., Krinner, G., Langer, M., MacDougall, A.H., Nitzbon, J., Peng, J., von Schuckmann, K., Seneviratne, S.I., Thiery, W., Vanderkelen, I., Wu, T. Continental heat storage: Contributions from ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing Earth system dynamics, 14, 609-627 (2023)
• DOI: 10.1111/geb.13646, Matthias F. Biber, Alke Voskamp, Christian Hof Potential effects of future climate change on global reptile distributions and diversity Global Ecology and Biogeography (2023)
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102667, Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Fang Li, Junya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Akihiko Ito, Dong Kun Lee, Wim Thiery Impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on fire carbon emissions in the future: Sustainable economic development might decrease future emissions Global Environmental Change (2023)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/accd83, Bauer, N., Keller, D.P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., Winkelmann, R. Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5°C carbon budget over space and time Environmental Research Letters, 18(5), 054015 (2023)
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, von Schuckmann, K., Minère, A., Gues, F., Cuesta-Valero, F.J., Kirchengast, G., Adusumilli, S., Straneo, F., Allan, R., Barker, P.M., Beltrami, H., Boyer, T., Cheng, L., Church, J., Desbruyeres, D., Dolman, H., Domingues, C.M., García-García, A., Giglio, D., Gilson, J.E., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Hendricks, S., Hosoda, S., Johnson, G.C., Killick, R., King, B., Kolodziejczyk, N., Korosov, A., Krinner, G., Kuusela, M., Langer, M., Lavergne, T., Lawrence, I., Li, Y., Lyman, J., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., MacDougall, A., McDougall, T., Monselesan, D.P., Nitzbon, J., Otosaka, I., Peng, J., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Sato, K., Sato, K., Savita, A., Schweiger, A., Shepherd, A., Seneviratne, S.I., Simons, L., Slater, D.A., Slater, T., Smith, N., Steiner, A., Suga, T., Szekely, T., Thiery, W., Timmermans, M.-L., Vanderkelen, I., Wjiffels, S.E., Wu, T., Zemp, M. Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: Where does the energy go? Earth System Sciences Data, 15, 1675–1709 (2023)
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16298, ansen, J., Woolway, R.I., Kraemer, B.M., Albergel, C., Bastviken, D., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Marcé, R., Sharma, S., Sobek, S., Tranvik, L., Perroud, M., Golub, M. Moore, T.N., Vinna, L.R., La Fuente, S., Grant, L., Pierson, D.C., Thiery, W., Jennings, E. Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters Global Change Biology, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16298 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee, Veronika Huber, Cristina Peña Ortiz, David Gallego Puyol, Stefan Lange and Francesco Sera Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality Environmental Research Letters, Volume 17, Number 4 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3, Klitting, R., Kafetzopoulou, L.E., Thiery, W., Dudas, G., Gryseels, S., Kotamarthi, A., Vrancken, B., Gangavarapu, K., Momoh, M., Sandi, J.D., Goba, A., Alhasan, F., Grant, D.S., Okogbenin, S., Ogbaini-Emovo, E., Garry, R.F., Smither, A.R., Zeller, M., Pauthner, M.G., McGraw, M., Hughes, L.D., Duraffour, S., Günther, S., Suchard, M.A., Lemey, P., Andersen, K.G., Dellicour, S. Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades Nature Communications, 13, 5596 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e, Stefanie Heinicke , Katja Frieler, Jonas Jägermeyr and Matthias Mengel Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves Environ. Res. Lett. 17 044026 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109203, Dalmonech D., Marano G., Amthor J., Cescatti A., Lindner M, Trotta C., Collalti A. Feasibility of enhancing carbon sequestration and stock capacity in temperate and boreal European forests via changes to management regimes Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 327 (2022) 109203 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002138, Yin LC, Tao FL, Zhai R, Chen Y, Hu J, Wang ZH, Fu BJ Impacts of Future Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on Ecosystem Water Retention Service Earth's Future, 10 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1, Anne Gädeke, Michel Wortmann, Christoph Menz, AKM Saiful Islam, Muhammad Masood, Valentina Krysanova, Stefan Lange and Fred Fokko Hattermann Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 094036 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16384, M. Mahnken, M. Cailleret, A. Collalti, C. Trotta, C. Biondo, E. D’Andrea, D. Dalmonech, G. Marano, A. Mäkelä, F. Minunno, M. Peltoniemi, V. Trotsiuk, D. Nadal-Sala, S. Sabaté, P. Vallet, R. Aussenac, D. R. Cameron, F. J. Bohn, R. Grote, A. L. D. Augustynczik, R. Yousefpour, N. Huber, H. Bugmann, K. Merganicova, J. Merganic, P. Valent, P. Lasch-Born, F. Hartig, I. D. Vega del Valle, J. Volkholz, M. Gutsch, G. Matteucci, J. Krejza, A. Ibrom, H. Meesenburg, T. Rötzer, M. van der Maaten-Theunissen, E. van der Maaten, C. P. O. Reyer Accuracy, realism and general applicability of European forest models Global Change Biology (2022)
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-3731-2022, Busschaert, L., de Roos, S., Thiery, W., Raes, D., De Lannoy, G.J.M. Net irrigation requirement under different climate scenarios using AquaCrop over Europe Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26, 3731-3752 (2022)
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022, Golub, M., Thiery, W., Marcé, R., Pierson, D., Vanderkelen, I., Mercado-Bettin, D., Woolway, R.I., Grant, L., Jennings, E., Kraemer, B.M., Schewe, J., Zhao, F., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Bogomolov, V.Y., Bouffard, D., Côté, M., Couture, R.-M., Debolskiy, A.V., Droppers, B., Gal, G., Guo, M., Janssen, A.B.G., Kirillin, G., Ladwig, R., Magee, M., Moore, T., Perroud, M., Piccolroaz, S., Raaman Vinnaa, L., Schmid, M., Shatwell, T., Stepanenko, V.M., Tan, Z., Woodward, B., Yao, H., Adrian, R., Allan, M., Anneville, O., Arvola, L., Atkins, K., Boegman, L., Carey, C., Christianson, K., de Eyto, E., DeGasperi, C., Grechushnikova, M., Hejzlar, J., Joehnk, K., Jones, I.D., Laas, A., Mackay, E.B., Mammarella, I., Markensten, H., McBride, C., Özkundakci, D., Potes, M., Rinke, K., Robertson, D., Rusak, J.A., Salgado, R., van der Linden, L., Verburg, P., Wain, D., Ward, N.K., Wollrab, S., Zdorovennova, G. A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 4597–4623 (2022)
• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2616, Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long‐term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14512, Twenty‐first‐century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116, Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
• DOI: 10.1111/jbi.13696, A comparison of macroecological and stacked species distribution models to predict future global terrestrial vertebrate richness
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6, State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
• The reference for the currently running simulation phase, ISIMIP2b, is Frieler et al. (2016, GMDD, 10.5194/gmd-2016-229). An overview of recent publications based on ISIMIP, including many published this year, is available at https://www.isimip.org/outcomes/.
• Frieler, K., et al.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5  °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-229, in review, 2016. http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/gmd-2016-229/
• The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework