891: Forest management in the Earth system

Principal investigator: Julia Pongratz

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (Community project)

Project abstract

Report 1/2015 to 12/2015
Report 1/2016 to 12/2016
Report 1/2017 to 12/2017
Report 1/2018 to 12/2018
Report 1/2019 to 12/2019
Report 1/2020 to 12/2020
Report 1/2021 to 12/2021
Report 1/2022 to 12/2022
Report 1/2023 to 12/2023
Report 1/2024 to 12/2024

Publications

• DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/F85QJ, Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Gidden, M. J., Lamb, W. F., Nemet, G. F., Minx, J. C., Buck, H., Burke, J., Cox, E., Edwards, M. R., Fuss, S., Johnstone, I., Müller-Hansen, F., Pongratz, J., Probst, B. S., Roe, S., Schenuit, F., Schulte, I., Vaughan, N. E. (eds.), 2024: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 - 2nd Edition. DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/F85QJ.
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0, Rosan, T.M., et al. (incl. Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Falk, S.), 2024: Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020. Commun Earth Environ 5, 46. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0.
• DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IOZXSKB, Pongratz, J., Smith, S. M., Schwingshackl, C., Dayathilake, L., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Pilli, R., 2024: Chapter 7: Current levels of CDR. in The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 – 2nd Edition (eds. Smith, S. M. et al.). https://www.stateofcdr.org, doi:10.17605/OSF.IOZXSKB.
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, Obermeier, W. A., Schwingshackl, C., Bastos, A., Conchedda, G., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Houghton, R. A., Tubiello, F. N., Sitch, S., and Pongratz, J (2024).: Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024.
• Gidden, M. J. et al.  (incl. Gupta, S., Pongratz, J.): Forcing datasets for earth system models of emissions-driven temperature stabilization and overshoot scenarios including multiple carbon dioxide removal methods, in preparation.
• Ganzenmüller, R, Obermeier, W. A., Bultan S., Spawn-Lee, S. A., Zabel, F., Pongratz, J.: Humans have depleted global terrestrial carbon stocks by a quarter, One Earth, in review.
• Friedlingstein, P., et al. (incl. Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Nützel, T.): Global Carbon Budget 2024, in preparation for Earth System Science Data.
• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1451, Egerer, S., Falk, S., Mayer, D., Nützel, T., Obermeier, W., and Pongratz, J.: How to measure the efficiency of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal methods, EGUsphere [preprint]
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51126-x, Dorgeist, L., Schwingshackl, C., Bultan, S. et al., 2024: A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Nat Commun 15, 7426. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51126-x.
• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, Kou-Giesbrecht et al. (2023) 'Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles'
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2022) ‘Global Carbon Budget 2022’, Earth System Science Data, 14(11), pp. 4811–4900
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00893-4, Winkler, K., Yang, H., Ganzenmüller, R., Fuchs, R., Ceccherini, G., Duveiller, G., ... & Ciais, P. (2023). Changes in land use and management led to a decline in Eastern Europe’s terrestrial carbon sink. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 237
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, McGrath, M. J., Petrescu, A. M. R., Peylin, P., Andrew, R. M., Matthews, B., Dentener, F., ... & Walther, S. (2023). The consolidated European synthesis of CO 2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020. Earth System Science Data, 15(10), 4295-4370
• DOI: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2023-409/, Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2023) ‘Global Carbon Budget 2023’, Earth System Science Data. [Pre-print]
• DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/W3B4Z, Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Schenuit, F., Steinhauser, J., Strefler, J., Valenzuela, J. M., and Minx, J. C. (2023). The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal -1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal.
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-2023-281, bermeier, W. A., Schwingshackl, C., Bastos, A., Conchedda, G., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Houghton, R. A., Tubiello, F. N., Sitch, S., and Pongratz, J.: Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint]
• DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1, Jones, M.W., Peters, G.P., Gasser, T. et al. National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850. Sci Data 10, 155 (2023)
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023, Grassi, G., Schwingshackl, C., Gasser, T., Houghton, R. A., Sitch, S., Canadell, J. G., Cescatti, A., Ciais, P., Federici, S., Friedlingstein, P., Kurz, W. A., Sanz Sanchez, M. J., Abad Viñas, R., Alkama, R., Bultan, S., Ceccherini, G., Falk, S., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., Korosuo, A., Melo, J., McGrath, M. J., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Poulter, B., Romanovskaya, A. A., Rossi, S., Tian, H., Walker, A. P., Yuan, W., Yue, X., and Pongratz, J.: Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1093–1114
• DOI: in Review, Ganzenmüller, R, Obermeier, W. A., Bultan S., Spawn-Lee, S. A., Zabel, F., Pongratz, J.: The terrestrial carbon deficit, Nature Geosciences
• Ganzenmüller, R., Bultan, S., Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Zabel, F., & Pongratz, J. (2022). Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated. Environmental Research Letters, 17(6), 064050.
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, Friedlingstein, P. et al. (incl. Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Falk, S.) (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-2022-245, Ganzenmüller, R., Bultan, S., Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Zabel, F., & Pongratz, J. (2022). Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated. Environmental Research Letters, 17(6), 064050. Grassi, Giacomo; Clemens Schwingshackl, ... Julia Pongratz (2022). Mapping land-use fluxes for 2001-2020 from global models to national inventories. Earth System Science Data Discussion,
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, Ciais, P., Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, ... Julia Pongratz et al., Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2) (2022). Geoscientific Model Development 15(3): 1289-1316,
• Dohner, Julia L.; Benjamin Birner, Armin Schwartzman, Julia Pongratz, and Ralph F. Keeling (2022). Using the atmospheric CO2 growth rate to constrain the CO2 flux from land use and land cover change since 1900. Global Change Biology.
• DOI: 10.1029/2021JG006525, Wey, H., Pongratz, J., Nabel, J. E. M. S., & Naudts, K. (2022). Effects of Increased Drought in Amazon Forests Under Climate Change: Separating the Roles of Canopy Responses and Soil Moisture. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 127(3).
• Winkler, K., Hui Yang, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Richard Fuchs, Guido Ceccherini, Grégory Duveiller, Giacomo Grassi, Julia Pongratz, Ana Bastos, Anatoly Shvidenko, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Philippe Ciais (subm.). Decline of the Eastern European land carbon sink – analysing the contribution of land use, management and environmental change. Nature Climate Change
• O'Sullivan, M., Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, ...Julia Nabel, Julia Pongratz et al. (in press.). Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink. Nature Comm.
• Schwingshackl, Clemens; Wolfgang Obermeier, Selma Bultan, Giacomo Grassi, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Werner A. Kurz, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz (in revision). Separating natural and land-use CO2 fluxes at country-level to reconcile land-based mitigation estimates. Future Earth.
• Nützel, T., Nabel, J., Hansis, E., Holube, K. & Pongratz, J. (in prep.). More realistic parametrisations of wood products and slash lead to changes in the regional distribution of LULCC emissions in a bookkeeping model.
• Lamb, W., Giacomo Grassi et al., incl Pongratz, J.: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2022.
• Kondo, M., Sitch, S., Ciais, P., Achard, F., Kato, E., Pongratz, J., ... & Zaehle, S. (2022). Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36(1), e2020GB006909.
• Chini, L., Hurtt, G., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Sitch, S., R Ganzenmüller, L Ma, L Ott, J Pongratz, & Poulter, B. (2021). Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets. Earth System Science Data, 13(8), 4175-4189.
• DOI: doi:10.5194/acp-21-6663-2021, Chen et al. 2021b. Linking global terrestrial CO2 fluxes and environmental drivers: inferences from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 satellite and terrestrial biospheric models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 21, 6663-6680.
• DOI: doi:10.17617/2.3311475, Wey, H.-W. (2021). Impact of forest drought response on land-atmosphere interactions. PhD Thesis, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg.
• DOI: doi:10.1029/2020GB006613, O'Sullivan et al. 2020. Climate-driven variability and trends in plant productivity over recent decades based on three global products. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34: e2020GB006613.
• DOI: doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abfac1, Chen et al. 2021a. Five years of variability in the global carbon cycle: comparing an estimate from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and process-based models. Environmental Research Letters, 16: 054041.
• DOI: doi:10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, Friedlingstein et al. 2020. Global carbon budget 2020. Earth System Science Data, 12, 3269-3340.
• DOI: doi:10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, Obermeier et al. 2021. Modelled land use and land cover change emissions - A spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 635-670.
• DOI: e2019GB006393, Bastos, A., ... Pongratz, J., ..., Nabel, J., et al., Sources of uncertainty in regional and global terrestrial CO2 exchange estimates. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34: e2019GB006393, (2020).
• Yang, H., ..., Nabel, J., et al., Comparison of forest above-ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation-based estimates. Glob. Chage Biol., 26: 3997-4012 (2020).
• Pan, S., ..., Nabel, J. et al., Evaluation of global terrestrial evapotranspiration using state-of-the-art approaches in remote sensing, machine learning and land surface modeling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 1485-1509 (2020).
• Wang, K., ..., Nabel, J., et al., Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa. Glob Change Biol.; 26: 4462– 4477 (2020).
• Nabel, J., Naudts, K. & Pongratz, J.. Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 185-200 (2020).
• Friedlingstein, P., ... Pongratz, J., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al. (submitted). Global Carbon Budget 2020, submitted to Earth Syst. Sci. Data.
• Collalti, A., ..., Nabel, J., Pongratz, J., et al., Forest production efficiency increases with growth temperature. Nat Commun 11, 5322 (2020).
• DOI: doi:10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, Bastos, A., … Nabel, J., et al. (2019). Contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere CO2 exchange. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, 12361-12375.
• DOI: doi:10.1126/sciadv.aax1396, Yuan, W., …, Nabel, J., et al. (2019). Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth. Science Advances, 5: eaax1396
• DOI: doi 10.5194/gmd-2019-68, Nabel, J., Naudts, K. & Pongratz, J. (2019). Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM. In open review for Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
• DOI: doi 10.5194/bg-2019-368, Jung, M., …, Pongratz, J., … Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al. (submitted). Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: Synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach. In open review for Biogeosciences
• Forzieri. G., … Pongratz, J., … Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al. (in press). Increased control of vegetation on terrestrial energy fluxes. Nature Climate Change.
• Friedlingstein, P., … Pongratz, J., … Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al. (submitted). Global Carbon Budget 2019, submitted to Earth Syst. Sci. Data.
• * Bastos, A. , ..., Nabel, J., Pongratz, J., et al.: Impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 373.1760, 20170304 (2018). * Buermann, Wolfgang, ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al. Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity. Nature 562.7725, 110 (2018). * Grassi, G., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks." Nature Climate Change 8.10, 914-920 (2018). * Le Quéré, C., ... Pongratz, J., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2017, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448 (2018). * Le Quéré, C., ... Pongratz, J., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2018, submitted to Earth Syst. Sci. Data. * Nabel, J., Naudts, K., Pongratz, J.: Influence of forest-age structure on land-atmosphere fluxes in the land surface model JSBACH. EGU Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 20, 6526 (2018). * Pongratz, J., ... Naudts, K. : Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models. Global change biology 24.4, 1470-1487 (2018). * Wang, J., ... Nabel, J., et al.: Contrasting interannual atmospheric CO2 variabilities and their terrestrial mechanisms for two types of El Ninos. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18, 10333-10345 (2018). * Winckler, J., Reick, C.H., and Pongratz, J.: Why does the locally induced temperature response to land cover change differ across scenarios? Geophys. Res. Lett. 10.1002/2017GL072519 (2017a). * Winckler, J., Reick, C.H., and Pongratz, J.: Robust Identification of Local Biogeophysical Effects of Land -Cover Change in a Global Climate Model, J. Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0067.1 (2017b). * Winckler, J., Reick, C.H., Luyssaert, S., Cescatti, A., Stoy, P.C., Lejeune, Q., Raddatz, T., Chlond, A., Heidkamp, M., and Pongratz, J., Different response of surface temperature and air temperature to deforestation in climate models, Earth System Dynamics Discussion (2018). * Winckler, J., Lejeune, Q., Reick, C.H., and Pongratz, J.: Nonlocal effects dominate the global mean surface temperature response to the biogeophysical effects of deforestation, in review (minor revisions) at Geophys. Res. Lett.
• * Erb, K.-H., Kastner T., Plutzar, C., Bais, A.L.S., Carvalhais, N., Fetzel, T., Gingrich, S., Haberl, H., Lauk, C., Niedertscheider, M., Pongratz, J., Thurner, M., Luyssaert, S.. Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass. Nature, in press. * Hansis, E., Davis, S. J., Pongratz, J.. Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 29, 1230-1246 (2015). * Le Quéré, C., … Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649 (2016). * Le Quéré, C., … Pongratz, J., … Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2017, in prep. for Earth Syst. Sci. Data. * Nyawira, S. Modeling the effects of land use change on soil carbon on global scale. Ph.D. thesis in Geosciences at the University of Hamburg, 2017. * Nyawira, S., Nabel, J., Brovkin, V. and Pongratz, J. Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land- use change. Environmental Research Letters 12(084015), 2017. * Vogt, J. The effect of limited CO2 fertilization for mature forests on climate and the carbon cycle in JSBACH. Master thesis, Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, 2017. * Winckler, J. Local and Nonlocal Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation in a Climate Model, Ph.D. thesis in Geosciences at the University of Hamburg, 2017. * Winckler, J., Reick, C., and Pongratz, J. The neglected nonlocal effects of deforestation. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, volume 19, page 9331, 2017.
• * Arneth, A., Sitch, S., Pongratz, J., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Have CO2 emissions from land use change systematically been underestimated? Nature Geoscience, in re-review. * LeQuere, C., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth System Science Data, 7, 349–396, 2015. * LeQuere, C., ... Nabel, J.E.M.S., et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2016, submitted to Earth System Science Data. * Nyawira, S., Nabel, J.E.M.S., Don, A., Brovkin, V., and Pongratz, J.: Soil carbon response to land- use change: evaluation of a global vegetation model using observational meta-analyses, Biogeosciences, 13, 5661-5675, 2016. * Sabot, M., Naudts, K., Nabel, J.E.M.S., Pongratz, J. Age-dependent harvest of forest: impacts on global carbon stocks and biophysical properties. In preparation. * Winckler J., Reick, C.H., and Pongratz, J: Robust identification of local biogeopysical effects of land cover change in a global climate model, J. Climate, in press. * Winckler J., Reick, C.H., and Pongratz, J: Why does the locally induced temperature response to land cover change differ across scenarios? In preparation for GRL (currently in internal review).
• LeQuere, et al.: Global Carbon Budget 2015, subm. to Earth System Science Data.
• Luyssaert, S., et al. 2014. Land management and land-cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature. Nature Clim. Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2196